SURREY, BC – A combination of unseasonably high demand and declining supply reinforced Fraser Valley’s real estate market in November.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,405 sales of all property types on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in November, an 11.7 per cent decrease compared to sales in October 2019, and a 36.7 per cent increase compared to the 1,028 sales in November of last year.

Darin Germyn, President of the Board, says, "Some listings are seeing a lot of activity depending on location and property type. REALTORS® are reporting more showings, higher traffic at open houses and even some multiple offer situations, which is atypical for the time of year.

"For our region, a balanced market is when 12 to 20 per cent of active inventory is selling. In November, 33 per cent of our supply of townhomes sold, as did 29 per cent of Fraser Valley condos; indicating that the supply of attached properties isn’t keeping up with demand." 

For the Fraser Valley region, the average number of days to sell an apartment in November was 40, and 38 for townhomes. Single family detached homes remained on the market for an average of 48 days before selling.

SURREY, BC – The demand for Fraser Valley real estate is the strongest it's been since the spring of 2018.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,592 sales of all property types on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October, a 18.5 per cent increase compared to sales in September 2019, and a 37.8 per cent increase compared to the 1,155 sales in October of last year.

Darin Germyn, President of the Board, says, "Our market started to pick up in the summer and we've been steadily improving since. It's rare to see October home sales in the Fraser Valley outpace April and that's what we've seen this year; our typical spring and fall markets have flipped.

"Consumers are feeling more confident. Buyers have grown accustomed to the government's regulation changes. Interest rates have thankfully remained stable and we're likely seeing some pent-up demand from buyers who were holding off earlier this year. October's beautiful, sunny weather didn't hurt either."

Germyn adds, "We're still seeing some hesitation from sellers to list as they continue to watch for further price erosion, however, it's important to talk to your local market expert because prices in some areas have turned the corner and are starting to creep up again."

SURREY, BC - For the third straight month, home sales in the Fraser Valley surpassed 2018 levels bringing the market back in line with long-term averages.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,343 sales of all property types on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September, a 3.5 per cent increase compared to sales in August 2019, and a 29.8 per cent increase compared to the 1,035 sales in September of last year.

Darin Germyn, President of the Board, says, "The market's return to balance is good news for both buyers and sellers, however it's important to put the 30 per cent year-over-year increase in sales into context. September's sales went from amongst the worst in 10 years to just above our 10-year average."

"Home prices are still dropping compared to a year ago, but on a month-to-month basis, prices are moderating because supply is shrinking. Our incoming supply of new listings has dropped consistently for the last four months pushing our total inventory in the Fraser Valley to the lowest it's been since April, which has had an impact on prices."

There were 7,946 active listings available in the Fraser Valley at the end of September, an increase of 3.9 per cent compared to September of last year and a decrease of 1.2 per cent compared to August 2019. The Board received 2,769 new listings in September, a 17.5 per cent increase compared to August 2019's intake of 2,357 new listings and a 6 per cent decrease compared to September of last year.

Germyn adds, "Financing is still a challenge for many clients, but fortunately in a balanced market like this, REALTORS® have the time to work with clients and advise them of the best strategies for them, whether they are buying or selling."

MLS® HPI Benchmark Price Activity

• Single Family Detached: At $950,000, the Benchmark price for a single-family detached home in the Fraser Valley decreased 0.4 per cent compared to August 2019 and decreased 3.9 per cent compared to September 2018.
• Townhomes: At $520,000 the Benchmark price for a townhome in the Fraser Valley in the Fraser Valley decreased 0.3 per cent compared to August 2019 and decreased 4.8 per cent compared to September 2018.
• Apartments: At $405,500, the Benchmark price for apartments/condos in the Fraser Valley decreased 0.9 per cent compared to August 2019 and decreased 7.6 per cent compared to September 2018.

For the Fraser Valley region, the average number of days to sell an apartment in September was 41, and 37 for townhomes. Single family detached homes remained on the market for an average of 46 days before selling.

Last week’s market reports from real estate boards including those in Vancouver and Toronto show that there is recovery underway with even the tough market conditions in Vancouver suggesting a bottoming-out.

This is unlikely to end calls for the mortgage stress tests to be altered or scrapped, says RBC Economics’ senior economist Robert Hogue, but it should “quiet down critics fearing a market collapse.”

In his latest assessment of the Canadian housing market, Hogue says the rebound for Toronto sales in May (resales up 19% year-over-year) says more about weakness a year ago than market momentum, with seasonally adjusted figures pointing to stabilization rather than a surge.

And ‘back-of-the-envelope’ calculations on the slowing of declining resales in Vancouver (-6.9% year-over-year in May compared to -30% in April) show that resales increased by more than 25% month-to-month in May on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

“This is the strongest sign yet that the market isn’t spiraling out of control. In fact, we believe it indicates that a bottom has been reached,” writes Hogue.

The report also notes several other Canadian housing markets as showing encouraging signs.

The traditional option of a condo as a cheaper alternative to a single-family detached home is less attractive in the hottest cities.

RBC says that demand for condos has driven prices higher and their affordability measure has increased (become less affordable) by far more than single-family homes (2.9% vs. 0.9%) over the past year.

Buyers of an average condo in Vancouver, Toronto, Victoria, and Montreal pay a premium of more than $900 per month relative to renting a two-bedroom apartment, a figure that has ballooned in the past three years.

Buying a condo is a bigger step up from renting than it's ever been in these cities.

Interest rate outlook
RBC Economics is not expecting rates to rise anytime soon but does forecast a continuation of the strong labour market, helping boost household income.

BCREA 2018 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update

Vancouver, BC – March 9, 2018. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2017 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 8.6 per cent to 94,855 units in 2018, after decreasing 7.5 per cent in 2017. A record 112,209 unit sales were recorded in 2016. The ten-year average for MLS® residential sales in BC is 84,800 units. Strong employment growth, consumer confidence and favourable demographics have been highly supportive of housing demand over the last four years. However, slower economic growth, tougher mortgage qualification rules, and a rising interest rate environment are expected to slow the pace of housing demand over the next two years

“Housing demand in the province is expected to moderate this year and in 2019,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “More stringent mortgage qualifications and rising interest rates will further erode affordability and household purchasing power.”

The 5-year qualifying rate is forecast to rise 35 basis points to 5.49 per cent by Q4 2018, and another 21 basis points to 5.70 per cent by Q4 2019. “With home prices already at an elevated level, BC households are more vulnerable to rising interest rates.”

The supply of homes for sale continues to trend at or near decade lows in most BC regions. However, this condition hasn’t gone unnoticed by home builders. There are over 60,000 homes now under construction in the province, well above the previous peak of 45,000 units recorded in 2008. In Metro Vancouver, over 42,000 units are in the pipeline, 56 per cent more than recorded in 2008. Slowing consumer demand combined with a surge in new home completions over the next several quarters will create more balance in the housing market and produce less upward pressure on home prices. The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to increase 6.0 per cent to $752,000 this year, and a further 4.0 per cent to $781,800 in 2019.

Mortgage rule changes and increasing interest rates—surprisingly—weren’t the top motivators for prospective homebuyers in 2017, according to a new survey from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

Instead, the 2018 Prospective Home Buyers Survey  found that improved accessibility (i.e., fewer physical obstacles and barriers) and investment opportunity were the main driving factors to purchase a home.

The results were divided into three segments of buyers: first-time buyers, previous owners (who had previously owned a home but do not currently) and current owners.

For first-time buyers and previous owners, the desire to stop renting was ranked as one of the top three motivators to buy a home by 65% and 60%, respectively.

“The majority of prospective home buyers from all groups agree that home ownership is a good long-term financial investment,” the survey noted.

This is the first time CMHC has conducted this specific study, which examined attitudes and expectations of prospective Canadian homebuyers, as well as their understanding of the homebuying process.

There was also some positive news for brokers, as the survey confirmed that a majority of buyers from all three groups—including a full 80% of first-time buyers—planned to consult a mortgage broker before making their home purchase.

Here are some of those findings (with key stats in blue):

Mortgage Rule Changes, Home Prices & Rising Interest Rates

• 36% of first-time buyers were aware of the 2016 mortgage qualification rule changes(e.g., the 10% down payment required for the home price portion above $500,000 and the requirement for all insured mortgages to be stress-tested using the 5-year posted rate).
  • 53% of previous owners and 58% of current owners were aware.

(Ed. note: On average, a minority of prospective homebuyers were aware of key mortgage rule changes. This helps make the case for the value a mortgage broker can bring in terms of increasing buyer awareness and helping them navigate sometimes complicated and unknown mortgage regulations.)

• 20% of first-time buyers not previously aware of the rule changes said it will impact their purchase decision in some way.
  • Vs. 18% of previous owners and 14% of current owners.
• 50% of first-time buyers said the changes would cause them to delay their home purchase, while 23% would purchase a smaller home.
  • 51% of previous owners and 65% of current owners would delay their purchase
  • 35% of previous owners and 32% of current owners would purchase a smaller home
• 76% of first-time buyers said they are likely to delay their home purchase due to high home prices, followed by 73% of previous owners and 63% of current owners.
• 70% of first-time homebuyers said they are concerned about the possibility of interest rates increasing before they buy their home, followed by 62% of previous owners and 61% of current owners.
• 61% of first-time buyers would, as a result, likely delay their home purchase, followed by 61% of previous owners and 50% of current owners.

Homebuying Expectations

• 69% of first-time buyers agree that they have a good understanding of how much mortgage they can afford.
  • Vs. 79% of previous owners and 83% of current owners.
• 54% of first-time buyers and previous owners are planning to spend under $300,000 on their next home.
  • Vs. 33% of current owners.
• 25% of first-time buyers and previous owners are planning to spend between $300,000 and $500,000 on their next home.
• 34% of current owners are planning to spend over $500,000 on their next home.
• 68% of first-time homebuyers feel confident they can find a suitable home within their budget.
  • Vs. 83% of current owners.

In a scenario where buyers would not be able to find their ideal home:

• 43% of first-time buyers would delay their purchase.
  • Vs. 45% of previous owners and 28% of current owners.
• 42% of first-time buyers would compromise on the size of the home.
  • Vs. 39% of previous owners and 42% of current owners.
• 38% of first-time buyers would compromise on the location of the home.
  • Vs. 39% of previous owners and 38% of current owners.

 Buying Preparedness

• 80% of first-time homebuyers plan to consult with a mortgage broker before purchasing a home.
  • Vs. 72% of previous owners and 69% of current owners.
• 16% of first-time buyers pre-qualify for a mortgage within three months of purchasing their home.
  • Vs. 21% of previous owners and 22% of current owners.
• 33% of all buyers prepare a detailed budget on their own within six months to a year before purchasing their home.

 Financing home

• 66% of first-time buyers say they have a good understanding of the full cost of homeownership, including mortgage payments, property taxes, condo fees, utilities, maintenance, etc.).
  • Vs. 79% of previous owners and 85% of current owners.
• 33% of all homebuyers say they will take additional steps to pay down their mortgage as soon as possible.
• 40% of first-time buyers and previous owners say they are unlikely to have a financial buffer in case their expenses change in the future.
• 40% of first-time buyers say they are confident they have the necessary tools and information to manage their mortgage and debt load.
  • Vs. 40% of previous owners and 50% of current owners.

(Ed. note: These numbers are surprisingly low, particularly for previous and current owners, and again illustrates the opportunity for mortgage brokers to play a role in educating homebuyers to prepare them for financially responsible home ownership)

Homebuyers and Technology

• 68% of first-time homebuyers would prefer to complete the entire homebuying process with help from a professional and be using online tools and resources:
  • Vs. 60% of previous owners and 58% of current owners.
• 7% of first-time buyers would prefer to use online tools and resources exclusively, without the help of a professional:
  • Vs. 4% of previous owners and 5% of current owners.

This survey was conducted in October 2017 and involved 2,507 prospective homebuyers who intended to purchase a home within the next two years.